UFC 107 Predictions by The Fight Pastor

The UFC is making their Memphis debut this weekend. This was originally supposed to be the culmination of the Rampage Jackson and Rashad Evans feud. After watching season ten of The Ultimate Fighter, where those two fighters bantered worse than my 9 year old twin boys, it is a bummer that Rampage decided to "retire" from fighting to pursue an "acting career." Fortunately, Rampage has finished filming the A-Team and has decided to come out of retirement. We will be able to see this fight some time next year.

The UFC replaced the TUF coaches battle with a lightweight championship fight between BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez. Overall, this is a pretty good card. That is saying a lot when you consider this is the UFC's third fight card in the last month. Anyways, diet Dr Pepper in hand, Point Break on in the back ground, here are The Fight Pastor's predictions for UFC 107. Enjoy!

Kevin Burns vs TJ Grant

This will be a pretty good fight to start the night off. Both Kevin Burns and TJ Grant like to push the action and usually have exciting brawls. Both fighters need a win to stay in the UFC. The fight will go to the ground but likely end on the feet with Burns pulling off a 2nd round TKO.

DeMarques Johnson vs Edgar Garcia

DeMarques was a favorite to win the finale on his season of TUF. Unfortunately his lack of submission defense cost him in his fight with James Wilks. Edgar Garcia is an ex-WEC fighter with a fairly well-rounded fight game. DeMarques speed is going to be the deciding factor as he wins a close 3 round decision.

Rousimar Palhares vs Lucio Linhares

I am convinced this fight is on the undercard because Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg could never pronounce either one of these guys names. This is a battle between two Brazilian submission fighters. This fight is going to the ground and someone is getting submitted. Lucio has been on a roll leading to this debut in the UFC. I think he is going to submit Rousimar by rear naked choke in round 3.

Johnny Hendricks vs Ricardo Funch

This fight pits a wrestler, Johnny Hendricks, against a jiu jitsu fighter, Ricardo Funch. Hendricks is out to prove his controversial TKO stoppage against, the popular, Amir Sadollah wasn't a fluke. Funch is hoping his UFC debut turns into a UFC career. The fight is going to the ground and is gonna be pretty boring as Hendricks tries to ground and pound Funch in his guard. Funch will try the occasional submission without success. Hendricks wins this fight because he is better on the feet. He pulls off a 3 round decision.

Matt Wiman vs Shane Nelson

Both of these Ultimate Fighter vets have fairly well-rounded MMA skills. Both of these TUF vets are also a loss or two away from ending up in another organization. This has the potential to be a fight of the night contender as both guys are desperate to maintain their minimal amount of relevancy in the sport. I am going with Matt Wiman by decision due to his strength advantage.

Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouveia

This is an interesting fight because both Belcher and Gouveia can win by knock out or submission. If the fight goes to the ground I think Gouveia will pull this out. If the fight stays standing then Belcher will win. I don't see the fight ending early and I think Gouveia is gonna get baited into a boxing match which he will end up losing by decision.

Paul Buentello vs Stefan Struve

This fight is ending in the first round. Buentello will either knock Struve out in the first 2 minutes or Struve will withstand Buentello's initial onslaught and pull off a submission (exact like the Chase Gormley fight). I am going with youth over experience. Struve wins his 3rd straight fight with a first round submission. (Or Buentello knocks him out.)

Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida

I enjoy watching both Kenflo and Clay "the carpenter" Guida fight. Their fights are rarely boring. I like watching Kenny Florian because his technical skill in variety of MMA disciplines is impressive. I like watching Guida because he is tenacious, never stops moving forward, and never gives up. (See his fight against Diego Sanchez for proof.)

Florian was on a roll until losing to BJ Penn. He seemed overwhelmed in that main event fight against Penn. He wasn't himself. Guida was also on a roll until he got beaten down by Diego (the fact he lasted the entire fight earned my respect!).

This is my pick for fight of the night. Guida will try to keep the fight on the ground and Florian won't care. Florian will try submission attempts and eventually get the fight back to the feet. On the feet Kenflo will hit Guida with elbows, knees, and kicks. Guida's floppy hair will get in his eyes but he will still find a way to get the fight back to the ground. He will ground and pound, Florian will try submissions and throw elbows eventually getting the fight back to the feet. This cycle will happen over and over again for three incredible rounds.

Florian will win a unanimous 3 round decision.

Jon Fitch vs Mike Pierce

This has been a journey for Fitch. He was to fight Ricardo Almeida at UFC 106 (a fight he would have easily won). But, Almeida blew out his knee. He was then scheduled to fight Thiago Alves at UFC 107 (a fight I think he would have lost). But, Alves blew out his knee. So we are left with Mike Pierce, who had recently beat Brock Larson (Larson is now out of the UFC).

I like Jon Fitch. I have met him a few times. He is a cool guy and a fighter who doesn't quit. His fights though are boring. He rarely finishes a fight. He usually spends 3 rounds punching a guy from the other guys guard.

That is exactly what will happen in this fight. Pierce is a tough guy who won't get knocked out or submitted. Fitch will end up taking him down, throwing punches from Pierce's guard, and eventually winning another boring 3 round decision.

Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo

Frank Mir and Cheick Kongo are coming off of losses. Frank Mir had his face mutilated by Brock Lesnar at UFC 100. This is his first fight since that pummeling. I saw Mir at the recent WEC event and he looks HUGE. He has easily put on 20lbs of muscle since that fight with Lesnar. I asked him about it and he said he realized he had to gain weight to compete against the Lesnars and Carwins of the world.

That is a scary thought for Kongo. Mir has far superior skill in just about every area of his MMA game and now he is bigger and stronger. The only advantage Kongo had in this fight was his strength and power edge. That may be gone.

Kongo lost his last fight to Cain Velasquez. Velasquez was smaller and clearly not as strong but continually took Kongo down. Kongo's ground game is atrocious. He was winning the stand up battle and came close to knocking Velasquez out but he can't keep a fight on its feet.

This fight is simple to call. Mir is a better boxer than Kongo. He will frustrate Kongo on the feet. Kongo will throw a few haymakers hoping they will connect and knock Mir out. They won't and Mir will use that to take him down. On the ground, Kongo being what wrestlers refer to as a fish will get submitted. Frank Mir will win submission of the night by submitting Kongo in the 2nd round.

Diego Sanchez vs BJ Penn

I have gone back and forth on my predictions for the main event. I watched the interviews of both fighters during the TUF 10 finale and started leaning towards a Diego upset. I wasn't a fan of Diego's when he fought at welterweight. I thought he was weird and his fights were dull. Since dropping to lightweight that has been another story. He is still a little weird but his fights have been exciting. The two constants with Diego are his incredible cardio and focus. Most MMA fans know cardio and focus are BJ Penn's ONLY (occasional) weakness. Lately that hasn't been the case for Penn.

My gut says a Diego upset but I bet against Penn when he fought Kenny Florian. He manhandled Florian and made me look silly. My brain says don't you dare go against Penn again! So I am going with a BJ Penn 3rd round submission of Diego Sanchez.

So there you have them, the Fight Pastor's prophetic predictions for UFC 107! So what do you think, am I a true prophet or should I be stoned? We will find out on Saturday! If you don't have anywhere to watch the fight this Saturday you are invited to see it live at Canyon Creek Church!